Active Monitors
Brazil 2026
Tracks the October presidential race across polling, Polymarket odds, right-wing coalition formation, and macroeconomic alerts.
Latest Snapshot
TOSSUP
Lula 42% · Flávio Bolsonaro 38% · Caiado 8%
Consolidation Index 100% · Econ Alert
Colombia 2026
Monitors the May 31 first round — Cepeda vs Valencia, runoff coalition index, security cleavage dynamics, and Polymarket odds since August 2025.
Latest Snapshot
VALENCIA_LEAN
Cepeda 41.0% · Valencia 39.9% · DLE 16.0%
Coalition Index 62% · Cleavage SECURITY
US–Iran War
Game-theory escalation tracker using RSS intelligence feeds, actor objective mapping, and scenario probability modelling.
Latest Snapshot · Day 34
Escalating
Escalation 82% · Ceasefire 18%
Strait of Hormuz pressure · IRGC posture elevated